A historic drama is about to unfold in Japan as the ruling Liberal Democrats are most likely to handpick a fast-rising female conservative from Nara, Sanae Takaichi, at the presidential election due shortly (September 29). Four candidates are up for the contest eyeing for the post of the party’s 100th president.

The candidates are symbolically divided by gender this time, as the global clamor for diversity is aloud in Japan as well. The two female candidates, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda are independent and both in their early 60s. Takaichi stands out in her firmly woven conservatism closely working with the former Premier Shinzo Abe who, in fact, has openly declared support for Takaichi – ” The whole world is watching”.

The current cabinet is a coalition of Liberal Democrats and Komeito, a liberally directed party largely sympathetic to China, and its posture has for some time drifted leftward to the extent the undercurrent of conservatism has visibly faded. The emergence of Sanae Takaichi is a response to the conservatism within the party and an ardent call without for a shift back to the right.

Fumio Kishida, one of two male candidates, has a faction of his own of some 50 members. He is policy-wise in tune with Abe and stands in a delicate position vis-a-vis Takaichi. He is liberally conservative and better adapted to the current political trends.

Taro Kono, the other male candidate, belongs to the faction led by the former premier Taro Aso who has held key financial posts throughout the six-year regime of Shinzo Abe and the current cabinet under Premier Suga. Kono, with his unique standpoints on nuclear and imperial issues, is popular SNS-wise and commands extensive support beyond politics. Some predictions suggest his advantage over Takaichi by some margin but there is no visible indication that he will actually pull through.

The election is two-fold i.e. the initial stage with some 766 (383 intra-party + 383 extra-party) votes at stake and, with none of the candidates commanding the majority, the second stage with 430 (383 intra-party + 47 prefectural) votes. The election will most likely run into the second stage with the top two challenging the post. Three options are foreseen: Kishida vs. Kono, Kono vs. Takaichi, and Kishida vs. Takaichi.

The competition is close but, the way Takaichi is gaining momentum at the moment of this writing, LDP is likely to appoint her for its president, namely Japan’s 100th primier. This of course is a prediction but a highly likely one at that.

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