●Nathan Shiga: October 3

The opposition camp in Japan’s political arena is drifting in a sea of chaos after the entry of Koike’s Party of Hope and the last-minute start of the Constitutional Democratic Party. An unprecedented drama is unfolding on the stage of live politics in the eve of the general elections a month away.

Tokyo’s Governor Koike apparently appears to have the upper hand right now in the political tug-of-war among the political parties. Was DPP skipper Maehara aware of the risk of “entrusting” his party’s would-be candidates in the hands of a conservative Koike with the elections barely a month ahead? Now that the leftwingers of DPP have chosen to join Secretary-General Edano’s just-founded Constitutional Democratic Party, whom would the majority of DPP suppers vote for?

So, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has virtually disintegrated to left and right – the former matching up with the communists (JCP) and the social democrats (SDP) and the latter joining Koike’s Party of Hope.

Abe’s LDP is way ahead in the race, having installed candidates in all national constituencies. Does he then have a cinch on a clear win? No, not exactly – judging from the way the Party of Hope is closing in fast. That is, Abe now has not a vulnerable liberal-democratic coalition but a formidable progressive conservative party to deal with this time around.

Tokyo Governor Koike is not running in the forthcoming general election. What if the Party of Hope should win the majority in the House? Could that “soldier of fortune”, Toru Hashimoto of JRP (Japan Restoration Party) pitch in to run a new cabinet in Koike’s place? A wild guess, for sure, but as they all say – politics is not worth an hour’s purchase.

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