Japan is undergoing an abrupt political change as the LDP’s leadership shifts from the outgoing PM Abe Shinzo to his cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga. It is a shift vital enough to affect the course of Japan’s political stance in general.

On August 28, Shinzo Abe announced all of a sudden his intent to resign his post of national leadership as PM to deliver a momentary shock to Nagatacho.  He reluctantly decided to step aside on account of his ailment (Ulcerative colitis (UC)) in the same fashion he was compelled to abruptly give up his second-term premiership. 

Ambitious as he was to take the reign of the GOP then,  Abe took it hard to give it up with his “hairs pulled from behind”. Now that he repeated the same process in letting go of his grip of the party, and thus the nation, is he just as reluctant this time as he was 8 years ago to vacate leadership?

Opinions may vary in multiple ways, but my immediate reaction is quite definite, definite in the sense that he means to step aside in the realistic sense of the word solely on account of his ailment, ready to challenge for the third time after a chain of medical treatments required to quieten his ailment which was then and is now an incurable malady he is destined to live with.

In other words, he announced his “retirement” with his eyes wide open to decidedly live the saying: “Third time’s is the charm”. Decidedly because he is neither too old to entirely walk out of politics nor medically hopeless to bounce back as he had previously done. 

The LDP leadership election ended with Yoshihide Suga superseding his rivals. Suga’s rule of the party only lasts a year or so and the process is due to repeat in a short period. Suga is built for inside maneuvers and utterly unfit for foreign affairs. The international political climate is such that Japan cannot survive with diplomacy-blind leadership. That requires Suga to have with or behind him a foreign affairs minister good enough to supplement his weaker or vacant spots.

Rumors have it that Taro Kono or Toshimitsu Motegi might fill the post, but will either of them do? Kono has a smoother English tongue to get by tête‐à‐têtes; so will Motegi somehow survive with his likable character and not-so-bad ability to manipulate English. But then, will the pressing political climate with the US and China tied up hard afford Japan to survive a storm of political decisions demanding her to take a definite course of action.

The writer has an utterly contrasting view to offer. Subject to Abe’s medical environment and to the stability of his health condition controlled under comprehensive medicare, the writer predicts Abe serving an ambassadeur extraordinaire and, in that capacity, playing a diplomatic mouthpiece of Yoshihide Suga. That would be an ideal manner to ensure continuity in Japan’s diplomacy formulated over the years under Shinzo Abe.

There is no knowing what it will be and how it turns out, but one thing is obvious: Japan is short of political manpower good enough to lead the nation. Were Shizo Abe totally healthy free of this ailment, the leadership reshuffle wouldn’t have ever taken place – meaning, were his ailment under complete control, he would be comfortably eligible to dare his third term as PM.

Shinzo Abe has merely stepped aside, not retiring for good. As a matter of fact, he is asking the nation for him to take a medical break to regain balance in his lifetime battle against his ailment. It is way more than probable that Shino Abe declares for the third time his challenge for national leadership soon enough.

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